tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post990096134633185061..comments2023-10-24T03:16:41.009-07:00Comments on Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog: Econometrics Without Borders?Dave Gileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05389606956062019445noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-49000046879725519692011-07-12T10:29:28.546-07:002011-07-12T10:29:28.546-07:00Winton - Thanks for the comment. I agree that econ...Winton - Thanks for the comment. I agree that econometrics has become a lot more useful in recent years. Apart from anything else, it's good to have access to richer, more timely, and more relevant data-sets than before, and advances in computing haven't hurt either!<br /><br />On your other point, personally I think you do have some reason for concern. Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but take a Popperian view. There needs to be a (theory-based) hypothesis that we then test and either reject or do not reject (yet). <br /><br />DGDave Gileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05389606956062019445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-28739986222462906002011-07-09T19:05:24.181-07:002011-07-09T19:05:24.181-07:00Dave, I was bemused by your comment that even econ...Dave, I was bemused by your comment that even econometricians can make a difference. As a person whose knowledge of econometrics has not advanced much since about 1971, it seems to me that econometricians do tend to make a lot of difference. Econometrics seems to have become a lot more useful over the last few decades.<br /><br />It seems to me that econometrics is even becoming slightly intimidating. When I read papers in which econometric results manage to stand up to a battery of tests including things like Bayesian averaging over classical estimators (BACE) my confidence in the results is increased. Yet I am not sure that I should be so impressed. I would probably be less impressed by the results of a BACE test if they were contrary to my prior knowledge of how the world works. It hasn’t happened yet – and perhaps it isn’t likely to happen in areas where my prior knowledge is based on tested theory. Yet I feel slightly uncomfortable that the distinction between testing theory and constructing theory is being lost. Do I have reason to be concerned?Wintonhttp://wintonbates.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com