Pages

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

An Overly Confident (Future) Nobel Laureate

For some reason, students often have trouble interpreting confidence intervals correctly. Suppose they're presented with an OLS estimate of 1.1 for a regression coefficient, and an associated 95% confidence interval of [0.9,1.3]. Unfortunately, you sometimes see interpretations along the following lines: 
  • There's a 95% probability that the true value of the regression coefficient lies in the interval [0.9,1.3].
  • This interval includes the true value of the regression coefficient 95% of the time.

So, what's wrong with these statements?