tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post5575057286452425349..comments2023-10-24T03:16:41.009-07:00Comments on Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog: What is an Econometric Model? Objectivity vs. ReflexivityDave Gileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05389606956062019445noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-66368669767424196942013-12-22T15:16:06.042-08:002013-12-22T15:16:06.042-08:00Lara,
I totally agree with you that causal relatio...Lara,<br />I totally agree with you that causal relations is the key to econometric models, else they<br />would be useless for policy making. Some go even further (e.g., Heckman) and claim that<br />the model should also encode counterfactual relations (e.g., what the salary level would be<br />of those trained, had they not been trained).<br />But if this is what an econometric model supposed to do, how do we read causal effects<br />or counterfactuals from the model?<br />Or, to be more concrete, how many economic instructors did you know who can answer<br />such questions? and how many econometric textbook do you know that tell readers how<br />to answer such questions?<br />So, where are we?<br />If causes and counterfactuals are the heart and soul of econometric models, how can historians<br />of econometric write history without attending to its heart and soul, namely the evolution of causal and counterfactual thinking in 20th century econometics.<br />This is what triggered my reaction upon reading "The History of Econometrics - An Alternative View"<br />JPJudea Pearlhttp://www.mii.ucla.edu/causality/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-66435837724982015712013-12-22T14:30:16.072-08:002013-12-22T14:30:16.072-08:00Dismissal by citation counting does not make my an...Dismissal by citation counting does not make my analysis reflexive.<br />Please have a glance at the content and judge scientifically whether the logic<br />proposed is reflexive or objective. Alternatively, how about citing<br />an alternative to the logic proposed: What is an econometric model?Judea Pearlhttp://www.mii.ucla.edu/causality/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-36575526642677139022013-12-22T13:04:38.133-08:002013-12-22T13:04:38.133-08:00About 50% of economists subscribe to the opinion t...About 50% of economists subscribe to the opinion that economic models are but a statistical models.<br />Some venture to go as far as stating that it is a parsimonious way of encoding a set of statistical models, one for each instantiation of the parameters. But this cannot be the whole story, because<br />this would not explain why economists labor so hard to IDENTIFY structural parameters. If prediction is all that the model gives us, why not do optimal predictions directly from the covariance matrix. Moreover,if prediction is all that we seek, how can we ever guide decision makers on policy questions?<br />Thus, there is more to an econometric model than what the Wikipedia definition tells us.<br />What is it?Judea Pearlhttp://www.mii.ucla.edu/causality/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-10027812146821416362013-12-22T05:34:08.335-08:002013-12-22T05:34:08.335-08:00This is quite interesting. In my opinion some key ...This is quite interesting. In my opinion some key concepts are missing in thw Wikipedia definition, for instance, the relationship shall be a causal one. Also, it seems to imply that these "economic quantities" represent variables establised in an economic model, but I would like the terms "variables" and "economic model" to be spell out.Jorge Larahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11452408461802722853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-36268903648088340232013-12-22T05:00:35.111-08:002013-12-22T05:00:35.111-08:00Judging from the citations in Pearl's articles...Judging from the citations in Pearl's articles to articles by Pearl, his analysis is about as reflexive as you can get.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2198942534740642384.post-65160116904992705232013-12-21T11:54:00.012-08:002013-12-21T11:54:00.012-08:00Hi: Maybe this is too simplistic but I think an ec...Hi: Maybe this is too simplistic but I think an econometric model is one that provides a way of quantitatively<br />connecting a response to one or more predictor variables. <br /><br />I come from a statistics background ( but I happen to be using/working on an econometric model ) so to me, an econometric model is not different from a statistical model except in the fact that the variables usually happen to be related to economics. In fact, in the model I'm working on, the variables are not related to economics. I'm using an econometric model in a non-economics application so I would argue that econometric models are really just statistical models.<br /><br />Disclaimer: My economics background is extremely limited ( I took intro to micro and intro to macro ~<br />30 years ago ) so if below is way off the mark for econometricians, I just think it adds to the discussion.<br /><br /><br />I believe that "econometrics" is really just statistical modelling or time series modelling in disguise.<br /><br /><br /> Mark<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com