Tomorrow morning (Wednesday 6 August) I'll be presenting at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Boston.
The title for my talk is "Modelling Asymmetries in the Market for Gasoline in Western Canada", and it's based on some research that I have underway on this topic.
The question that's addressed in this work is: "Are the upward and downward movements in retail gasoline prices, that follow increases and decreases in crude oil prices, symmetric?" There's a common perception that the "flow-through" from oil prices to gasoline prices is faster when prices are rising than when they are falling. I use ARDL models with an explicit allowance for possible asymmetry to test this hypothesis.
I'll have more to say on this when the work is completed, but in the meantime you can see some partial results by downloading the slides for my talk here.
